Author: Dr. Moon Kim

Publisher: Acta Astronautica

Publication Date: April 7, 2025

Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2025.04.011

Dr. Kim conducted an empirical analysis of NASA’s launch costs over the last three decades. While many in the space industry assume that the commercial launch industry is driving launch prices down, there is limited empirical research to support this narrative. Due to the proprietary nature of launch price data, previous analyses have relied on advertised launch prices and theoretical maximum payload capacities. However, Dr. Kim used actual cost data from NASA’s commercial launch services, along with other mission parameters, and revealed a trend that challenges industry beliefs and offers a new perspective on the market dynamics of the launch industry.

Findings

• NASA is paying more, not less, for certain launches: The inflation-adjusted cost of launch services for NASA’s unique, non-routine missions has been increasing by an average of 2.82% annually.
• Competition does not appear to have slowed launch cost growth: This increasing cost trend did not change significantly after 2016, suggesting market competition has had limited effects on launch prices for NASA.
• Economies of scale are not uniform: Economies of scale in the launch market may be confined to individual launch types (e.g., self-manifested and CRS) and do not uniformly lower costs for all launches.